Werewolf Game (Signups Closed)

Pirate TimeLord · Post by **Pirate TimeLord** » 13 Jun 2020, 16:10

No info to go on really, so random vote is random (sorry)

Smileymaniak

weeabooweegee · Post by **weeabooweegee** » 13 Jun 2020, 16:54

Smileymaniak

Citizen · Post by **Citizen** » 13 Jun 2020, 17:02

weabooweegee

Dangerous doggo detected.

Jas · Post by **Jas** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:13

This a lynch the user above them thing?

Citizen · Post by **Citizen** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:15

I have a system.

Jas · Post by **Jas** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:16

Hm. I wanna see how this plays out.

Smileymaniak · Post by **Smileymaniak** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:20

But I dun want to die. I'm too pretty!

softnlil · Post by **softnlil** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:22

oops goodbye guys! ;-;

Jas · Post by **Jas** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:23

Have no regrets. You did your best.

Smileymaniak · Post by **Smileymaniak** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:24

I'ma vote @weabooweegee at least that way I have a chance >.<
besides... seems like a very wolf thing to do to just agree with the first vote. hoping to have a snow ball effect! I know your game woofies!

EDIT: and not even an apology! At least @Pirate TimeLord feigned regret but you! you just want me dead...the bloodlust radiating of this guy is unreal... get him folks!

H03nn89 · Post by **H03nn89** » 13 Jun 2020, 18:30

Seems pretty even here... hmm...

Beex · Post by **Beex** » 13 Jun 2020, 19:07

It's probably not either of them.

GraceMelody

Pirate TimeLord · Post by **Pirate TimeLord** » 13 Jun 2020, 19:51

Hey, not me. You'll see (hopefully later in the game)

Jas · Post by **Jas** » 14 Jun 2020, 03:52

Beex wrote: ↑
13 Jun 2020, 19:07
It's probably not either of them.

GraceMelody

Well statistically, one of them probably is.

There are 3 wolves to a population of 9, meaning that each of us naively has a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

The chance of both of them being a wolf is low, given as the product of the individual probabilities:
P(A) = 3/9 = 1/3
P(B given A) = 2/8 = 1/4 (one less person and one less wolf)
Then P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B given A) = 1/12

The chances of at least one of them being a wolf, though, is the complement to neither of them being a wolf. The odds of neither being a wolf is then the same basic idea as before, but the individual probabilities complemented:
P(A') = 6/9 = 2/3
P(B' given A') = 5/8
Then P(A' and B') = 5/12
But since we're actually looking at the complement:
P(A or B) = P((A' and B')')
= 1 - P(A' and B') = 7/12

There is actually a second way to calculate this, which is to consider P(A) + P(B) separately. That is, the chance of A or B directly instead of as a complement. The idea is to add the individual probabilities, but we must subtract the intersection so as not to double count it.
P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A and B)
Note that these have no presumption of order because they are the odds of drawing either at random.
P(A) = 3/9 = 1/3
P(B) = 3/9 = 1/3
P(A and B) = 1/12, as previously calculated.
Then P(A or B) = 1/3 + 1/3 - 1/12 = 7/12

So get way you slice it, there is more than a 50% chance that at least one of them is a wolf.

But y'know, whatevs.

Smileymaniak · Post by **Smileymaniak** » 14 Jun 2020, 10:06

So basically you're saying if weabooweegee isn't a wolf when we kill him then your going to kill me anyway

yay... Well for posterity I'm getting this out there while I'm still alive, I ain't a woof!!

EDIT:
Also...

Jas wrote: ↑
14 Jun 2020, 03:52
The chance of both of them being a wolf is low, given as the product of the individual probabilities:

The chances of us both being a wolf is closer to being 0% due to rule 2.

Lord Myne wrote: ↑
18 Apr 2020, 20:35
Wolves will know who one another are and thus communicate via PM or Skype which (1) Villager they chose to eat in the night phase.

I doubt two woofs would knowingly vote for one another.
The world is a crazy place though so you never know haha!

FURTHER EDIT:

So... I dunno how much longer i'm going to be alive and figure i'd best share my current thoughts with the group as I don't know if you're still allowed to contribute after death (i know you aren't allowed to vote but doesn't say anything about communicating).
Edit: seems you can still communicate, YAY!:

Lord Myne wrote: ↑
18 Apr 2020, 20:35
Once a villager or wolf is killed they can no longer vote in the game, but they are allowed to interact as "ghosts".

With that being the case and at the risk of pissing many people off haha, my current thoughts are:

1.)
Seer, would be nice to hear from you if you have any useful information by now.
You shouldn't have any problems revealing yourself if the guardian is doing their job.
Early game is harder to reveal yourself because you don't have much information but at this stage even knowing who are villagers *obviously accounting for the fact one could be Alpha WW* would be helpful to everyone.
WWs already know who the villagers are by process of elimination because they know who the other WWs are.

2.)
Besides weabooweegee, my suspicions at the moment lay with Jas, Citizen and Grace.
All very intelligent people, also the only people who accused Mel of being a WW from the beginning of the game.
Now, you may say "but Smiley, Mel died on the first night, why is this important" well let me explain;
It would be silly for people to accuse Mel of being a WW and then for Mel to die at the hands of the WWs during the first night.
This is because the WWs could have not killed Mel and simply let the villages do the job during the day phase.
However! smart woofs would have known this and be able to convince people as such.
And who were the first people to point out the fact that letting the villagers kill Mel would have been a better idea? hmmmm!
Same people who accused her of being a wolf from the start, no more, no less only, Jas, Grace and Citizen.

A very smart plan to reduce suspicion on the WWs very early in the game. Now this theory obviously doesn't hold 100% true if weabooweegee turns out to be a wolf, so I suspect one of them, possibly Jas, was just going along with the rp in the beginning but I obviously have no way to tell for sure.
It's very possible that weabooweegee is not a WW at all and simple crowd mentality took over when Pirate Timelord made their Vote for me.

I have no answers.
...but hopefully this logic may help the villagers who survive make good decisions.

Now discuss people! we need more communication up in here! is hard to find out who the wolves are for sure if we don't talk, the only way we'll find out who the wolves are without talking is by waiting until the end and seeing the 3 of them alive while the rest of us have been eaten! TALKY TALKY TALK! *boop*

FURTHER FURTHER EDIT!:

also just noticed that in the first vote while everyone was voting for Arya, Graciettie voted for Grace... surprise surprise the next night phase she was killed by the WWs...
Thinking about it more a Vote for Arya is suspicious in itself (a vote instigated my Citizen) and I'm annoyed at my self that I didn't think of this sooner.
Only the WWs would have something to gain my killing an absent player early on.
1.) it means they don't have to waste a night phase killing an absent player
2.) they waste our Vote instead
3.) even if Arya was a WW, it wouldn't have a negative impact on the villagers.
If anything it would have been helpful because if we were able to kill the other two WWs and then no one died in the next night phase it would have been obvious that it was Arya, without wasting our votes!

So just saying i'm 100% suspicious of grace right now haha! probably won't see you by the next morning phase so *waves*